Super Tuesday, March 5, Presidential Primaries
Between now and March 5, 2024 twenty jurisdictions will have Presidential Primaries. Our endorsements and recommendations for these contests are as follows.
Open Primary States
If you are in an open primary state, vote in the Republican Primary for Nikki Haley. This is our recommendation regardless of your normal party affiliation. It is important that Trump supporters realize the depth of antipathy for their candidate. Perhaps if they do they will turn against him.
Closed Primary States
If you are in a closed primary state and affiliated with the Republican Party, vote for Nikki Haley. If you are affiliated with the Democratic Party, we suggest voting for Dean Phillips. It would be interesting if he could gather enough support to be included in national polls against Trump. Phillips has pledged to drop out of the race, if those polls showed that he was a weaker candidate against Trump than Biden. We would like to see that hypothesis tested. It is also important that there should be someone else available for the Democratic Convention to turn to in the event that Biden withdraws.
South Carolina Primaries
The Democratic Primary Race
We did not endorse a candidate in the Democratic Primary in South Carolina. We viewed the outcome as inevitable. We think that Dean Phillips should remain in the race despite his poor showing. He has stated that he would get out of the race if national polls showed that he is a weaker candidate against Trump than Biden. Until that time, Phillips provides a fall back option should Biden be unable to run or choose not to do so.
The Republican Primary Race (Saturday, February 24)
South Carolina is an open primary state. Those Democrats or independents who chose not to vote in the Democratic Primary are eligible to vote in the Republican Primary. We urge these voters to get off the sidelines and vote for Nikki Haley.
If you are a Republican, or a right leaning independent, the case for Nikki Haley is that she is a conservative who stands a far better chance of winning than Donald Trump. She has a coherent foreign policy position that is in line with traditional conservative values. She is realistic about the need for compromise on domestic issues and is therefore likely to accomplish more. She is not under indictment for numerous state and federal crimes.
If you are a “never Trump” Republican, Nikki Haley is the only game left in town. We understand why Chris Christie will not endorse her. He wants her to state unequivocally that she will not endorse Trump or serve as his vice president. While doing those things might make her more attractive to Chris Christie and us, they make it less likely that she will gain the nomination. We are willing to overlook those failings, if it means that Trump is not on the ballot.
If you are a Democrat or a left leaning independent, you should be willing to accept the risk that Nikki Haley will defeat Biden. A few years of, what you might consider, bad domestic public policy are far better than the risk of Donald Trump regaining the White House. The consequences of Trump as President of the United States, at this moment in history, are too horrible to contemplate, for both the U.S. and the entire Western Alliance.
Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primary Endorsements
The Republican Primary Race
The Centrist Independent Voter endorses Nikki Haley for both the Iowa Republican Caucuses and the New Hampshire Republican Primary. This decision was made much easier as a consequence of Chris Christie dropping out of the race. Haley is solid on foreign policy. She appears to be realistic on the issue of the deficit and the national debt. She is, now, the only viable alternative among the Republican candidates still in the field.
If you are a right leaning, centrist Republican or independent, Haley is solidly right of center but not far right. If you are a centrist independent, Haley is by far the most centrist Republican contender.
If you are a Democrat, there is a danger in voting for Haley in the primaries, if that option is open to you as an “undeclared” voter in New Hampshire. (Iowa is a closed primary state.) She stands a far greater chance of defeating Joe Biden in the general election than any of the other Republican candidates. (Republicans should also remember that). While we urge centrists who have a party affiliation to switch parties for the primaries, where it is possible, our goal is to get centrist candidates onto the ballot in the general election. We do not believe it is wise for voters to vote in their opposition’s primary in order to support the worst possible candidate, on the theory that it will help their candidate win in the general election. This is playing with fire for partisan advantage and the danger of doing this should be clear to all. Things happen during campaigns; candidates can make fatal political errors and they can get sick or die. We need general elections in which either candidate would be an acceptable outcome.
Please, if you can, support Nikki Haley in the Iowa Caucus or the New Hampshire Primary.
The Democratic Primary Race
There is no Presidential contest at the Democratic Iowa caucuses this year. Democrats will have the option of mailing in their preferences. In New Hampshire, voters will have to write in Joe Biden’s name if they want to support him. Both of these changes are the result of the Democratic Party attempting to put South Carolina first in the primary calendar.
In both cases we recommend that centrist voters support Joe Biden.
Our only reservation about this decision is Dean Phillips. He is a two-term Democratic congressman from Minnesota. On the issues, he is pretty similar to Joe Biden. Unfortunately, while Biden may be too old for the job, Phillips is too inexperienced. He is inexperienced both in terms of his political expertise and his public policy background. Based on listening to his town hall presentation in New Hampshire from last November, he appears to be an open minded Progressive. He voted with Biden 100% of the time. If Biden’s agenda had been 150% more left wing, he would probably have supported that agenda, too. He is concerned about the debt levels but seems to believe that the principle way of addressing that issue is to raise taxes. He supports numerous additional social welfare programs including: universal health care, mental health care, child care, and expansion of social security.
Is he more electable than Joe Biden? He is younger than Biden by a significant amount and he is a better speaker. He is also more left wing than Biden, which will hurt him with centrist independents. He also has a name recognition problem, although that problem would likely be solved if he wins the New Hampshire Primary. Net he is probably a risky choice, but so is Biden.
Weighing all of this, we endorse Biden in both of these contests.
Having said that, we recommend listening to Dean Phillips in the above mentioned town hall. He has some good ideas on a number of issues. While he appears to be solidly left of center, he also seems to respect the role of the private sector. He is not a radical; he opposes drastic changes such as packing the Supreme Court or ending the Electoral College. He also appears to have an open mind. We think he has a future, just not this year.