The United States should:
- Maintain the option of using all means necessary to prevent China from using military force to seize Taiwan
If you have already made up your mind, then scroll to the bottom of the page and take the poll to let us know how you feel. If you need to hear more, please read the background section below.
Curious how your views compare? Early input has a meaningful impact—vote below (scroll down) to see the current results.
Your input helps us refine these policy positions.
Background
During the second half of the 20th century, the world was relatively free of significant territorial aggression, with the notable exception of the Korean War and Iraq’s seizure of Kuwait (1990). The 21st century has seen a fairly abrupt end to this pattern, including Russia’s seizure of the South Ossetia and Abkhazia regions of Georgia (2008), Russia’s annexation of the Crimean region of Ukraine (2014), and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine (2022).
We believe that this era of relatively limited territorial aggression, in the second half of the 20th century, was largely the result of the United States maintaining a global military advantage and signaling a willingness to use it.
The invasion of Kuwait by Iraq in 1990 may have been encouraged by a U.S. diplomat inadvertently signaling to Saddam Hussein that the United States would not oppose the invasion. A similarly weak response from the U.S. and NATO to Russia’s preparations for the invasion of the Crimean region may have played a role there.
We believe that there is now a significant risk that China will use military force to seize Taiwan. The U.S. and its allies should make clear that Chinese military aggression against Taiwan will not be tolerated. All options should remain under consideration.
The United States and most other nations formally recognize a “One China” policy. The U.S. has also maintained that we would support Taiwan in “defending itself” from military invasion by China. China may eventually persuade Taiwan to agree to peaceful reunification. This outcome certainly appeared possible while China maintained the “one country-two systems” policy with respect to Hong Kong. China’s efforts to exert more autocratic authority in Hong Kong have made this kind of gradual peaceful reunification with Taiwan less likely, although not impossible.
As China has dramatically increased its military capabilities in recent years, the notion of Taiwan being able to “defend itself” appears increasingly doubtful, regardless of the level of military support provided by the U.S. If we want to deter a military invasion of Taiwan, the U.S. will need to become much more explicit about the nature of its commitment to Taiwan. Strategic ambiguity may no longer be an effective deterrent.
Go to the Table of Contents or to the next Foreign Policy Position
Ready to weigh in? At this stage, each vote has a meaningful impact—see the current results after voting.
Your input helps us refine these policy positions.