Replaying history is a difficult, and often pointless, exercise. I recently read an article by Tom Friedman arguing, among other things, that NATO’s expansion into the former Soviet states was a major mistake because it unnecessarily alarmed Russia. He sites George Kennan in the article saying pretty much the same thing. Tom Friedman is a smart man and George Kennan is clearly a genius, particularly with respect to Russia and the Soviet Union. But smart people and even geniuses are not always right. It is possible that Russia, absent NATO expansion might have evolved into a less aggressive state. Who knows? It seems, to me, that the more likely scenario would have been a Russia, under Putin, just as aggressive and malevolent, but with a larger menu of defenseless Eastern European states to turn into puppet states or to invade and annex. If Putin did not have NATO to use as a pretext to foment his toxic form of nationalism, he would have done what lots of other despotic rulers do and created some other false pretext for promoting his fantasy of reviving the Russian empire.
Was it a mistake for NATO to expand into the former Soviet states?
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One thought on “Was it a mistake for NATO to expand into the former Soviet states?”
I agree with you, Mike. I do think that Friedman, while smart, is often wrong (about China, about Putin in his early years – ‘rooting for Putin’ and about Japan.) In a sense, that comes with the job – writing a column on current events.
I think pundits commenting on current events often triangulate lots of policy decisions and previous positions. There are many exceptions – including you. Thanks.