If an Embargo of Russian Gas is a Good Idea, Why is Russia Cutting Off Supplies?
In earlier posts I have pressed for an embargo on Russian natural gas exports. I still think this makes sense, but I can also see the wisdom of a buyers’ cartel that would cap the price that Europe would pay for Russian gas (also explained here). What gave me pause in these thoughts was Putin’s decision (and I am assuming it was his idea) to reduce Russian gas exports through the Nord Stream pipeline. Why would he voluntarily forego this revenue? Does he really think it hurts the West more than it hurts him? Does he just think that Western leaders, particularly German leaders, are so weak-willed that even a small amount of pain will cause them to collapse like a house of cards? Is he just acting like a spoiled child, threatening to hold his breath until his parents give in?
The Role of Contracts
One clue as to what is behind the choking off of gas supplies is the excuse offered: technical problems with the generators that push the gas through the pipeline. The company responsible for maintaining the compressors says that it is unaware of any problems. Why offer this excuse? Presumably the gas flowing through the Nord Stream pipeline is sold under a long-term contract with a fixed price (or some complicated formula that limits the extent of fluctuation in the price). What this means is that even though natural gas prices in Europe are exceptionally high, Russia is receiving a price for the gas that is substantially lower.
Isn’t Russia Contractually Obligated to Supply the Gas?
There is, probably, an out in the contract, for technical problems or “acts of god” that make it difficult to supply the gas. My guess is that Putin is using this ruse to limit Europe’s ability to stockpile gas for this coming winter.
What Should the West Do?
If there are contracts that govern the sale of gas through Nord Stream and other pipelines, the West ought to seize the opportunity created by Russia’s abrogation of its responsibilities under those contracts. The West should “renegotiate” the terms of purchase under those contracts at a lower fixed price determined by a Western buyers’ cartel. By the way, there is no reason why this arrangement should not survive the end of Russia’s war against Ukraine. It is important to remember that this is at least the second time that Russia has, probably, violated the terms of its contracts. The first was when they insisted on payment in rubles.
Would this Work?
I am assuming a lot of facts in this argument and would welcome others, who know the details of the Nord Stream agreement, to weigh in. However, if I am right, a buyers’ cartel for gas delivered by pipeline from Russia to Western Europe could accomplish two important objectives. One, it would deny Putin an important source of funds for carrying out his unprovoked war against Ukraine. Two, it would mitigate the harm to Western Europe from continuing to impose sanctions on Russia.
What Would Putin Do?
In response, Putin could do any of the following. First, he could realize that, in the long run, his situation is hopeless and withdraw his forces from all of Ukraine and cease all hostile acts against Ukraine. (I know this isn’t likely, but one can only hope that at some point Putin will come to his senses.) Or second, he could double down on the spoiled child model and refuse to sell gas at the cartel price, in which case we have a de facto embargo. Or third, he could accept that, once again, he has overplayed his hand and accept what he is offered for his gas.