Process of Evaluating the Candidates for the U.S. Senate in 2024
It seems likely that the Senate will flip from being narrowly controlled by to the Democrats (51-49, including the independents who caucus with the Democrats) to a narrow Republican majority after the 2024 elections. Manchin’s (Democrat turned Independent) retirement in deep red West Virginia pretty much guaranteed at least one more seat for the Republicans. Other factors make it even more likely. Most of the U.S. Senate seats that are up for election this year in swing states are currently held by Democrats. Most of the Republican seats that are up for election are in safe states.
Control of the Senate will probably be decided in a couple of key races including Montana and Ohio. Both of these states have incumbent Democratic Senators, Tester and Brown, respectively. Both are running in solidly red states and Tester is behind in the polls and Brown is slightly ahead.
Tester vs. Sheehy
If Trump wins, I would very much like to see a Democratic Senate. If Harris wins, I would like to see a Republican Senate. The Presidential race appears as close to a toss up as one could imagine, so I will put the issue of balancing the President aside in thinking about my preferred victors in the Senate.
I prefer Tester to his Republican opponent mostly on the basis of foreign policy and abortion rights. Tester is a supporter of continued aid to Ukraine; his opponent Sheehy is not. Sheehy comes across as an America first isolationist. He seems to hold the bizarre view that a well funded military that sits on the sidelines, wishing our allies well but doing nothing, is a recipe for global peace and American security. I think he must have been dozing during history class when they discussed the causes of WWII. On abortion rights, Tester wants to legislatively re-establish the right of a woman to an abortion before fetal viability. Sheehy wants to tar Tester with the more extreme views of some Democrats on this issue.
I listened to a debate between these two and I have to say they were remarkably civil to one another. One thing does stand out. Tester is on the centrist wing of the Democratic Party. He cites rankings that list him as one of the most bi-partisan Senators. Sheehy is a fairly typical Trump era Republican. On balance, I personally prefer to keep Tester in the Senate.
Sherrod Brown vs. Bernie Moreno
On two issues, I strongly favor Brown over Moreno; support for Ukraine and abortion rights. Their positions on these issues are clear and polar opposite. Brown supports abortion rights and aid to Ukraine. Moreno opposes both.
On other issues, I’m not so sure. Brown has been an ardent supporter of organized labor. He gets a 100% lifetime score from the AFL-CIO. He ranks nearly as far left as it is possible to rank on economic issues, on the ontheissues.org graphic of the political spectrum. Moreno appears to be almost as staunchly conservative, with a whiff of populist.
I decided to leave this race alone if Moreno was at least silent on Trump’s assertion that the 2020 election was stolen. When I looked it up, I found this. So I think I will hold my nose and personally endorse Sherrod Brown. I will not even propose to our Board of Governors that CIVPAC officially endorse him.