Ted Cruz vs. Colin Allred
I just finished listening to the debate between Cruz and Allred for the U.S. Senate seat from Texas. Harvard Law (Cruz) is probably a better preparation for this kind of debate than the NFL (Allred), but Allred did a very credible job. Making sense of any of these debates requires doing a lot of reading between the lines and doing your own fact checking. My sense of the truth in this contest is that Cruz is a very right-wing Republican, who has caved to Donald Trump’s hold on the GOP. He is anti-abortion rights, so much so that he repeatedly refused to answer the question of whether he supported exceptions for rape and incest in anti-abortion legislation. This is not surprising given his earlier support for personhood for the unborn. Both candidates have voted for or opposed legislation that would make them appear to be very extreme. Unfortunately, legislative proposals, on both sides, are often performative setups. They are designed to force the other side to seem to take an unreasonable position based on distasteful elements included in the legislation. Here is my take on what both candidates would do in office.
Immigration
The Democratic Party, including Colin Allred, has been converted on immigration by recent experience. I believe that Allred will support the kind of immigration reform embodied in the bi-partisan legislation that Donald Trump killed, through people like Cruz. I believe that Cruz will do the same, once his party and Donald Trump can claim credit for it. I think Cruz will support Trump’s border wall, even in places where it makes no sense. I don’t think Cruz will oppose anything that Trump does in office. Sadly, I think this will include ill advised mass deportation programs and restrictions on legal immigration. I think this will hurt our agricultural, construction, hospitality, and home child and health care sectors. While additional immigrants may contribute to increased demand for housing, they also contribute significantly to America’s productive capacity in many areas, including housing. If Harris is President, I think Cruz can be relied upon to oppose whatever she supports, because he has Presidential ambitions that require that the issue of immigration remains a hot button issue.
Inflation
Irresponsible spending and irresponsible tax cuts are stimulative and in the absence of constraint by the Federal Reserve Board (Fed), they have been inflationary. The spurt in inflation that followed Covid had many causes but it was primarily due to loose monetary policy in the U.S. and other developed countries in the early days of the pandemic. The proposals offered by Allred and the Democrats generally are a mix of somewhat defensible public policies, like allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices and horrible policies, like price controls (labeled anti-price-gouging legislation). The key to avoiding a resurgence of inflation is preserving the independence of the Fed. Harris has promised to do this, Trump has said he wants a role in monetary policy. Political involvement in monetary policy generally leads to higher inflation. I doubt that Cruz has the political courage to oppose Trump on this issue or any other issue.
Foreign Affairs
Colin Allred is a supporter of U.S. aid to both Israel and Ukraine. Cruz is likely to be supportive of Israel under all circumstances, but is likely to oppose continued aid for Ukraine. He did vote against it. He is likely to adopt Trump’s America first views with respect to NATO and generally weaken America’s alliances.
Energy and the Environment
Allred and Cruz both say they favor an “all of the above” approach to energy production.
Allred and Cruz both objected to the ban on LNG exports, although in Allred’s case after having cast a vote against legislation that would have prevented the ban. Higher LNG exports are in the interest of Texas as well as the United States and Western Europe. Cruz has a rather bizarre view that limiting these exports hurts Texas agricultural interests. If anything, preventing LNG exports lowers domestic natural gas prices and the cost of fertilizer produced with natural gas.
On climate change, Allred seems to support the Democratic Party’s views. Cruz is a hard core climate change denier. I am fine with objecting to the targeted subsidy approach favored by Democrats on this issue. I am frustrated by Cruz’s and the Republican Party’s attempts to dismiss the problem rather than offer better proposals for dealing with it, like the carbon tax/tariff approach.
Political Courage and Bi-partisanship
I don’t really care if Ted Cruz hid in a closet during the January 6 attack on the capital. I don’t care if he flew to Cancun during the power outages in Texas. I do care that he appears to lack the necessary political courage to stand up to Trump. Allred made repeated references to his own bi-partisan reputation. Cruz claimed Allred almost always voted straight party line. Cruz claimed to have introduced a number of bills co-sponsored by Democrats. It is noteworthy that those bills were mostly about bipartisan pork, like highway construction, rather than politically controversial issues. The record clearly shows that Allred is a left of center politician but he is not in the same crowd as Warren or Sanders.
Cruz was instrumental in trying to overturn the 2020 election. He remains a defender of Trump’s false claims. Despite repeated insults to Cruz’s family, his wife, and to Cruz himself, Cruz continues to seek out Trump’s affection. The only explanation that comes to mind is blind political ambition.
Elimination of the Filibuster Rule
Cruz rightly points out that Allred would support Kamala Harris and vote to abandon the filibuster rule in the Senate. We view this as a serious mistake no matter what your political leanings are. Unfortunately, Trump also favors dumping the filibuster rule. Is there anyone who thinks that Cruz would stand up to Trump and defend the filibuster, if Trump leaned on him to vote against it?
The Endorsement
This is not a happy choice, but on balance I’d rather see Colin Allred in the Senate than Ted Cruz.