Michigan U.S. Senate: An Evaluation, Not an Endorsement

Michigan U.S. Senate evaluation graphic featuring a purple outline of Michigan and the U.S. Capitol, with the text “Mike Rogers vs. Abdul El-Sayed,” “Centrist Independent Voter,” and “CIVPAC.”

We have completed our evaluation of the 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate race between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed.

It is not an endorsement.

We could not quite get there for either candidate.

That is worth putting in context. During the Democratic primary, CIVPAC endorsed Haley Stevens over El-Sayed. Had Michigan Democrats chosen Stevens as their nominee, we would probably have endorsed her in the general election as well. Our inability to endorse El-Sayed is therefore not simply a consequence of evaluating a Democrat against a Republican. It reflects concerns specific to his candidacy and policy program.

Rogers and El-Sayed present very different strengths, weaknesses and policy agendas. But each leaves us with an important unanswered question that goes beyond the ordinary disagreements voters should expect in a Senate race.

Our full evaluation examines those differences in considerable detail.

El-Sayed has produced one of the most extensive and specific policy platforms we have encountered this election cycle. (That is one reason why this evaluation has taken about a week to draft.) We agree with him on some important matters, including support for Ukraine, concern about unauthorized military action, protection of reproductive freedom, vocational education, increasing housing supply and taking potentially catastrophic artificial-intelligence risks seriously.

We disagree much more broadly with his economic approach. His Medicare for All proposal would create a far more comprehensive government-financed system than Medicare as Americans know it today. His proposed annual wealth taxes are extraordinarily high by international standards. His AI program would go beyond regulation to substantial government ownership and control of major AI companies. We also differ on labor policy, tariffs, climate policy, the Senate filibuster and restrictions on independent political spending.

But those normal policy disagreements are not what ultimately prevent us from reaching an endorsement.

For El-Sayed, the unresolved question concerns Israel.

He has repeatedly declined to say plainly that Israel should continue to exist as a Jewish state alongside a Palestinian state. He has said that whether there should ultimately be one state or two should be decided by “the people,” without clearly defining who he means by that term.

Our question for him is straightforward:

Does Abdul El-Sayed accept that Israel should continue to exist as a secure Jewish and democratic national home for the Jewish people, with equal individual rights for its non-Jewish citizens, alongside a viable Palestinian state in which Palestinians exercise their own national self-determination?

He is perfectly capable of answering it.

Mike Rogers presents a very different problem.

Rogers’s earlier career gives us substantial reasons to take him seriously. He has deep national-security experience and, in 2021, forcefully rejected Donald Trump’s effort to overturn the 2020 election. Rogers wrote then about the danger of blind allegiance to a person or party and insisted that certified election results should not be rejected without evidence.

The 2026 Rogers has aligned himself much more closely with President Trump.

To his credit, he has also demonstrated some real independence. He has called for an end to the Iran war, supported slowing AI development while safeguards are developed, and backed a Michigan pause on new data centers despite the administration’s very different approach.

But his comments about his own 2024 Senate loss remain difficult to reconcile with the standard he articulated in 2021. Rogers has suggested that a Detroit ballot delivery “swung” the election against him without producing evidence that anything improper occurred.

So our question for Rogers is equally straightforward:

Does he still apply to himself the standard he articulated when Donald Trump lost an election?

More broadly, where are the lines at which a future Senator Rogers would place his own judgment, constitutional responsibilities and institutional obligations ahead of loyalty to President Trump?

We are not asking either candidate to agree with CIVPAC on everything.

We are asking each to answer a question that bears directly on whether we can recommend entrusting him with a seat in the United States Senate.

Michigan voters should listen carefully for those answers.

Until we hear them, this remains an evaluation, not an endorsement.

CIVPAC has endorsed Jack Reed for reelection to the United States Senate from Rhode Island.

Rhode Island outline and U.S. Capitol representing CIVPAC’s 2026 endorsement of Jack Reed for U.S. Senate.

This is not an endorsement based on broad ideological agreement. Reed remains substantially to our left on labor policy, taxation and the proper scope of government. We disagree with him on important domestic economic questions.

But Reed is unusually strong on several issues that have become increasingly important in CIVPAC’s 2026 Senate evaluations.

He has been a consistent supporter of Ukraine and of America’s alliances, brings substantial experience in national security, and has repeatedly defended Congress’s constitutional authority over war powers and presidential use of emergency powers. His record gives us considerable confidence that he views the Senate as an independent branch of government rather than simply an extension of the executive.

The alternatives did not overcome that advantage. Republican Ray McKay is closer to CIVPAC on some conventional economic issues, but his campaign has closely identified itself with President Trump and has provided relatively little detail on Ukraine, NATO and congressional independence. Independent Michael Bahry offers a more developed foreign-policy position, but his support for American withdrawal from NATO is fundamentally at odds with CIVPAC’s view of the United States’ international responsibilities.

On balance, Reed’s strengths on foreign policy, Ukraine and institutional responsibility outweigh our significant disagreements with him on domestic policy.

CIVPAC therefore endorses Jack Reed for reelection to the U.S. Senate from Rhode Island.

Read our full Rhode Island U.S. Senate evaluation.

See all CIVPAC 2026 endorsements.

CIVPAC has endorsed Marquita Bradshaw for the United States Senate in Tennessee.

Tennessee outline and U.S. Capitol representing CIVPAC’s 2026 Tennessee U.S. Senate endorsement.

It was not an easy decision. In fact, we had been preparing to make no endorsement at all.

Republican incumbent Bill Hagerty is substantially closer to CIVPAC on many questions of taxation, regulation and economic policy. Bradshaw’s economic philosophy remains considerably to our left, and important questions remain about her views on Ukraine, NATO and America’s broader international responsibilities. Her current campaign focuses primarily on domestic priorities including education, health care, housing, voting rights, broadband, small business and environmental issues.

But Hagerty’s record raises a different set of concerns. He has opposed U.S. assistance to Ukraine, saying that he had opposed “every cent” of such aid and arguing that the United States should focus its resources at home. He has also generally supported President Trump on issues in which CIVPAC believes congressional independence deserves particular attention, including nominations, tariffs and presidential war powers.

The final consideration came from President Trump himself.

At the Republican midterm convention in Dallas, Trump urged voters to treat the 2026 election as a referendum on his presidency, telling them to “pretend I’m on the ballot.”

CIVPAC has decided to take that invitation seriously.

For CIVPAC, divided government is not an automatic reason to support the opposition party. Candidates still have to be judged individually. But when questions of congressional independence and executive power are already central to an evaluation, the composition of the Senate becomes an additional consideration.

After weighing those factors, CIVPAC has endorsed Marquita Bradshaw for the U.S. Senate from Tennessee.

Read our full Tennessee U.S. Senate evaluation.

See all CIVPAC 2026 endorsements.

CIVPAC Endorses Brian Bengs for U.S. Senate in South Dakota

Centrist Independent Voter endorses Brian Bengs for U.S. Senate in South Dakota in the 2026 general election.

Our endorsement of independent candidate Brian Bengs for the United States Senate from South Dakota was not an easy one.

Republican Senator Mike Rounds has done some things we respect. He has been a strong supporter of Ukraine, and after the 2020 election he rejected Donald Trump’s unsupported claims of widespread fraud and said plainly that Trump had lost a fair election.

But more recently, Rounds has too often gone along with an increasingly powerful presidency rather than insisting that Congress exercise its own constitutional responsibilities.

Bengs offers something different. He is running as a genuine independent and says he would caucus with neither major party. Along with several other independent Senate candidates, he has discussed creating an independent caucus that could serve as a fulcrum between Republicans and Democrats.

We find that possibility enormously attractive.

Congress has surrendered too much authority to presidents of both parties, while party leadership increasingly determines what individual members are expected to support. Even a small group of independent senators could make bipartisan coalitions easier and force Congress to behave more like an independent branch of government.

We have substantial disagreements with Bengs. We oppose his proposed wealth tax and have serious reservations about parts of his health-care and economic agenda. An endorsement does not require agreement on every issue.

It does require a judgment about which candidate would make the Senate—and the country—better.

In South Dakota, we believe that candidate is Brian Bengs.

Read our full endorsement of Brian Bengs for U.S. Senate.

See also Centrist Independent Voter’s 2026 candidate endorsements.

CIVPAC has endorsed Sherrod Brown over Jon Husted in Ohio’s 2026 U.S. Senate race.

CIVPAC endorses Sherrod Brown in the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate race

This was a close call. Husted is stronger on several issues, school choice, right-to-work principles, and the Hyde Amendment. He also deserves credit for supporting Ukraine and for rejecting election denial after January 6.

But his Senate record matters. On controversial nominees, Trump’s tariffs, and congressional war powers, Husted has repeatedly sided with the administration even when other Republican senators chose to break with it.

Brown has plenty of positions we dislike, particularly on protectionism, unions, and price controls. But in the political environment of 2026, we believe the stronger need is for an independent legislative check on executive power.

Under a different president and Congress, this endorsement might go the other way.

Read the full endorsement

See all of CIVPAC’s 2026 candidate endorsements

CIVPAC Endorses Josh Turek for U.S. Senate in Iowa

Centrist Independent Voter endorses Josh Turek for U.S. Senate in Iowa, with the U.S. Capitol and Iowa farmland.

This may be the closest thing CIVPAC has published to an endorsement by faint praise.

We have endorsed Josh Turek for the United States Senate from Iowa over Republican Ashley Hinson. But this is not an endorsement in which one candidate clearly reflects our views and the other clearly does not.

Both candidates have strengths. Both have weaknesses. And under different national circumstances, I can easily imagine CIVPAC reaching the opposite conclusion.

Ashley Hinson has positions we like. She is generally more market-oriented than Turek. She supports right-to-work laws and school choice, positions substantially closer to our views on labor unions and K–12 education. She voted to accept the certified results of the 2020 presidential election and supported the Respect for Marriage Act. She is not simply an election-denying MAGA caricature.

Josh Turek, meanwhile, has plenty of positions we do not like.

He supports a wealth tax on billionaires. We do not. Our taxation, spending and debt policy favors a progressive tax system but puts considerable weight on economic efficiency, broad tax bases and long-term fiscal balance rather than new taxes on accumulated wealth.

Turek also supports federal food-price-gouging restrictions. We generally distrust price controls and laws that attempt to suppress price signals rather than address the underlying causes of scarcity.

He supports the PRO Act, which conflicts with our view that workers should be free to organize but that states should remain free to enact right-to-work laws. He would end school vouchers, while CIVPAC supports carefully designed experiments with vouchers and charter schools subject to common transparency and testing standards.

His foreign-policy views are also less developed than I would like in someone seeking a seat in the United States Senate.

So why endorse him?

Partly because endorsements are comparative judgments, not ideological purity tests.

Turek has demonstrated something we value enormously: an ability to represent people who do not necessarily share his party affiliation. Donald Trump carried his Iowa House district, yet Turek won it. He has crossed party lines on consequential votes and has been effective in a legislature overwhelmingly controlled by Republicans.

He is also substantially closer to us on abortion and personal liberty. And his combination of stronger border enforcement with a legal path for long-established undocumented residents is much closer to the compromise reflected in our immigration policy than either open-ended permissiveness or mass-deportation politics.

Turek also strongly opposes Trump’s broad tariffs. That puts him much closer to CIVPAC’s trade policy, which favors open trade, predictable rules and restoring greater congressional control over the use of tariffs.

Hinson, meanwhile, increasingly identifies herself with Donald Trump and his agenda. She has supported his broad tariff policies, which we regard as economically damaging and particularly inappropriate for an agricultural state.

She also voted against the 2026 Ukraine Support Act despite having previously expressed stronger support for resisting Russian aggression. CIVPAC’s Russia and Ukraine policy places considerable weight on deterrence, alliance reliability and denying Russia the benefits of territorial aggression.

Most importantly, the current political environment changes the weight we assign to these differences.

If Donald Trump and Trumpism were not dominant forces within the Republican Party, this endorsement might be different.

If Democrats controlled the presidency and Congress and the greater need were for a market-oriented check on the left, this endorsement might also be different.

In that environment, Hinson’s positions on taxes, school choice, labor policy and regulation might well carry greater weight.

But we do not make endorsements for an imaginary political system. We make them for the one that exists.

Today, institutional independence, constitutional restraint, respect for individual liberty, sensible trade policy, support for American alliances and a willingness by members of Congress to act as legislators rather than extensions of a president deserve unusual weight.

On balance, Turek comes out ahead.

Not by much.

That is why “endorsement by faint praise” seems about right. It is not meant as an insult to Turek. It is a recognition that serious political choices are often between imperfect alternatives.

CIVPAC’s purpose is not to find candidates with whom we agree on everything. It is to decide which available candidate is more likely to move government in a sensible, centrist and institutionally responsible direction.

In Iowa, by a narrow margin, we believe that candidate is Josh Turek.

CIVPAC Endorses Mark Sanford for the U.S. Senate

South Carolina scene featuring the State House, state outline, palmetto trees, crescent moon, waterfront and the words “South Carolina—The Palmetto State.”

CIVPAC has endorsed former Governor Mark Sanford in South Carolina’s August 11 special Republican primary for the United States Senate.

Sanford is not a conventional centrist, and CIVPAC has important disagreements with him—particularly on abortion. But he offers qualities that have become increasingly rare in the Republican Party: genuine concern about federal debt, support for competitive markets and free trade, respect for constitutional limits and demonstrated independence from Donald Trump.

Sanford opposed Trump’s tariffs, challenged the party’s growing reliance on presidential loyalty and lost his congressional seat after publicly criticizing Trump. His record gives us reason to believe that he would approach the Senate as a member of an independent branch of government rather than as an automatic vote for the president.

He has made serious personal and political mistakes. South Carolina voters have previously considered those failures and returned him to public office. We believe his experience, fiscal seriousness and political courage make him the strongest candidate in the Republican field.

Read CIVPAC’s full endorsement of Mark Sanford.

See this endorsement and our other current recommendations on the 2026 CIVPAC Candidate Endorsements page.

After Trump, Again

In 2020, Bob Bauer and Jack Goldsmith published After Trump: Reconstructing the Presidency. The book argued that Donald Trump’s first term had exposed serious weaknesses in the constitutional guardrails, laws, norms, and institutional practices that constrain the presidency. They offered reforms covering conflicts of interest, foreign influence, abuse of the pardon power, Justice Department independence, special counsel rules, war powers, emergency powers, vacancies, and other areas where presidential power had proven more vulnerable to abuse than many Americans had assumed.

It was an important book. It was also, in retrospect, optimistic.

The premise seemed to be that Trump had revealed the weak points in the system, and that responsible people in both parties might respond by repairing them. That was not a foolish hope. After Watergate, Vietnam, and the Church Committee, Congress did enact reforms intended to constrain executive abuse. The American system had failed before, learned from the failure, and tried to build stronger guardrails.

But that requires goodwill.

It requires elected officials who care not only about whether their side wins, but about whether the rules survive. It requires members of Congress to defend Congress as an institution. It requires courts to enforce legal limits where they can. It requires political parties to screen out candidates who are plainly hostile to constitutional restraints. It requires voters to punish misconduct even when the misconduct is committed by someone who says the things they want to hear.

The Constitution is not self-executing. Neither are statutes. Neither are norms.

Rules work only when enough people in positions of power feel some obligation to preserve them. When that obligation disappears, the rules become less like walls and more like lines painted on the floor.

That is the lesson of the current moment.

It would be naive to pretend that presidents of both parties have never bent, scraped, or even occasionally jumped the guardrails. They have. American history is full of examples of executive overreach, partisan hardball, and self-justifying claims of necessity. But the current moment feels different in scale, scope, and intent. What once appeared as episodic abuse now looks increasingly like a systematic effort to convert weak points in the constitutional order into ordinary tools of governance.

The problem is no longer simply that Trump found weak points in the presidency. The problem is that those weak points are now being used as a governing strategy. Conflicts of interest, attacks on law enforcement independence, pressure on neutral institutions, threats against political opponents, abuse of pardon and prosecutorial discretion, and the blending of public power with private grievance are no longer aberrations. They are becoming part of the operating manual.

A revised edition of After Trump would not be a 400-page book. It might be 1,000 pages.

That is not because the first book was inadequate. It is because the second Trump term is testing whether the American political system can respond to known vulnerabilities after one party has decided that exploiting them is preferable to repairing them.

Republicans should think harder about what they are teaching.

They may believe that bending the rules is justified because Trump is their candidate, because Democrats are worse, because the bureaucracy is hostile, because the press is unfair, or because the stakes are too high to lose. Those rationalizations are not new. Every faction that weakens institutional restraints tells itself that its emergency is unique.

But no party stays in power forever.

At some point, a Democrat will win the presidency. Perhaps that Democrat will be center-left, restrained, and institutionally minded. Or perhaps the next successful Democrat will be a left-wing ideologue with Trump’s appetite for grievance and Trump’s willingness to use public power against enemies. Perhaps that person will also be a gifted performer, a relentless fundraiser, and a shameless grifter.

If Republicans believe that possibility is impossible, they are fooling themselves.

Every precedent they set now will be available later. Every weakened ethics rule, every politicized prosecution, every retaliatory investigation, every permissive theory of presidential power, every excuse for self-dealing, every attack on neutral administration, every effort to turn law enforcement into a partisan weapon—those lessons will not be forgotten by their opponents.

Republicans may think they are building a fortress. They may be building a road map.

This is the part of constitutional politics that partisans often refuse to see. A rule that protects only your side is not a rule. A norm that matters only when the other party violates it is not a norm. A legal restraint that depends entirely on whether the president feels like obeying it is not much of a restraint at all.

That is why goodwill matters.

Goodwill does not mean weakness. It does not mean refusing to fight for policy goals. It does not mean pretending that the parties are the same or that disagreements are unimportant. It means recognizing that there are some tools a decent political movement should not use, because once those tools become legitimate, no one can control who uses them next.

The American constitutional system was designed with ambition counteracting ambition. But ambition does not counteract ambition if Congress becomes an extension of the president, if party loyalty overwhelms institutional duty, if courts avoid hard questions, and if voters reward abuses because they are aimed at their favorite targets.

The result is not strong government. It is government by retaliation.

A healthy political system needs more than written rules. It needs officeholders who accept that victory is temporary, legitimacy matters, opponents are not enemies of the state, and power borrowed from weakened institutions must eventually be repaid—with interest.

That is the warning Republicans should hear now.

The damage they tolerate because it benefits them today may become the weapon used against them tomorrow. The constitutional shortcuts they excuse now may be used by someone they fear far more than the current Democratic leadership. The presidency they are helping to reconstruct around personal loyalty and unchecked discretion will not always be occupied by their champion.

That should worry them.

It should worry everyone.