Elissa Slotkin (D) vs. Mike Rogers (R)
This Senate seat from Michigan is open as a result of Debbie Stabenow’s (D) retirement. Elissa Slotkin is a former CIA analyst and Pentagon official and a three-term Congresswoman. Rogers is a former FBI agent and seven-term Congressman.
Abortion
Rogers is solidly anti-abortion, but has pledged that he would not vote for national anti-abortion legislation. Slotkin, who is solidly pro-choice, has said she does not trust Rogers on this issue, given his record. One does not have to doubt the sincerity of Rogers’ pledge to realize that there are any number of proposals restricting reproductive rights that may confront the Senate, short of an outright ban, that Rogers could be expected to support given his record. I would give this issue to Slotkin.
Electric Vehicles and the U.S. Car Industry
This is a hot button issue in Michigan for obvious reasons. Rogers asserts that Electric Vehicle (EV) mandates have hurt U.S. car manufacturing. Slotkin asserts that there are no EV mandates and that she opposes EV mandates. She also supports subsidies for the U.S. auto industry to compete with China in the production of EVs. The truth is that there are no nationwide EV mandates (California is another issue.) Having said that, the Biden administration has pushed for tighter fuel efficiency standards and subsidies that favor EVs. The right solution on this issue is to have a uniform carbon tax and allow consumers and manufacturers to decide how to adapt to it. That could mean just driving less, driving more fuel efficient gas powered cars, driving hybrids (including both plug in or non-plug in versions, and driving EVs. Neither party or candidate supports this approach. What we don’t need are regionally different and constantly changing regulations that whipsaw manufacturers. I view this issue as a toss-up.
Foreign Conflicts
Both of these candidates favor continued support for Israel. Slotkin sides with the Biden administration to lean on Israel to accept a ceasefire if that is accompanied by the release of the hostages. Both favor continued support for Ukraine, although Rogers’ defense of Trump’s comments about not defending NATO countries is not helpful. Rogers also suggests that the aid to Ukraine should be a loan, which is problematic given Russia’s destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure. Both support continued support for Taiwan. Rogers wants to restrict that to weaponry. Slotkin suggests that she would support the use of U.S. troops to defend Taiwan. These are complicated issues. Both of these candidates are serious people. My concern is that Rogers will feel an obligation to Trump, based on Trump’s endorsement of Rogers. For that reason and because of Rogers’ less than full-throated support for Ukraine and NATO, I would give this issue to Slotkin.
Immigration
Slotkin appears to have taken the immigration problem seriously before the Biden administration turned to it. She has proposed a number of solutions to enhance Homeland Security against potential threats from illegal immigrants. Rogers opposed the bi-partisan legislation to strengthen the border, presumably to gain Trump’s endorsement. Rogers does oppose mass deportation and the direct use of U.S. troops at the border. Both of these candidates are better on this issue than their national standard bearers. I would view this issue as a toss up, were it not for Trump’s endorsement of Rogers. Based on that, I tilt toward Slotkin. I hope that Republicans recognize that a Trump endorsement is a solid negative for centrist, independent voters.
Tariffs
Rogers supports Trump’s across the board tariffs on imports. The vast majority of economists agree that this will raise domestic prices, lower economic growth and employment, and likely engender retaliatory tariffs and potentially cause a global recession. Slotkin favors more focused tariffs like the one on Chinese EV’s put in place by the Biden administration. While I generally favor free trade, I recognize that protectionist tariffs are popular in Michigan. On this issue, I give the nod to Slotkin because the across the board tariffs are such an unambiguously stupid idea.
Inflation
Neither of these candidates addresses the issue of inflation in a serious fashion. During the Covid pandemic, the U.S. and our peers in the G10 faced a hard economic decision. The U.S. chose to avoid a deep recession by aggressive fiscal spending, some of which began during the Trump administration. The Federal Reserve Board (Fed) initially accommodated this aggressive fiscal policy by maintaining low interest rates, as did many other central banks. The Fed eventually realized that the inevitable inflation was not going to be a temporary blip and raised interest rates to curtail inflation. The net result for the U.S. has been a more shallow recession, higher economic growth, and higher employment than our peers within the G10. We did have a somewhat higher level of inflation, but only modestly so. The correct question to ask voters is not are you better off today than you were before Covid, but are you better off now than you would have been under a less aggressive fiscal policy? Our experience relative to that of our peer countries suggests that the answer is a resounding yes.
Were there excesses in some of the specifics of the Biden administrations’ policies? Yes, but the broad policy was very effective. Some of the credit for this goes to the Fed, and the Biden administration deserves some credit for not attempting to interfere with the Fed when it increased interest rates. Trump, and by association Rogers, deserves discredit for suggesting that he would try to play an active role in monetary policy. Generally speaking, political involvement in monetary policy leads to greater inflation.
Slotkin, and the Democratic Party, suggest a variety of things to address inflation that have nothing to do with inflation and some of which might be counter-productive. To her credit, Slotkin opposes the subsidy for new home purchases proposed by Kamala Harris. To her credit, Kamala Harris, and by association Elissa Slotkin, has indicated that she would respect the independence of the Fed. On balance, I would give this issue to Slotkin. I wish her rhetoric and that of the Democratic Party reflected a better understanding of the issue.
The Endorsement
On balance, I have to endorse Elissa Slotkin for the Senate from Michigan. But, I would like to hear these two debate the issues in a post-Trump/Harris world.
If you are interested in seeing a current summary of the official Centrist Independent Voter endorsements in the 2024 Senate races, click here.