Tag: Candidate Recruitment

Paving the Road to “Blue MAGA”?

Symbolic blue road roller paving a blue road, representing the political path toward “Blue MAGA.”

AI-generated symbolic image of a blue road roller paving the road to “Blue MAGA.”

Democrats have spent years warning, correctly, that Trumpism has damaged American politics. But one lesson they should not take from Trumpism is that politics is only about mobilizing the most emotionally committed members of the base.

That way lies what some have called “Blue MAGA.”

By “Blue MAGA,” we do not mean that left-wing populism is identical to Trumpism. It is not. Nor do we mean that Democrats should reject working-class appeal, fresh candidates, economic populism, or a willingness to fight. Democrats may need more of some of those things.

By “Blue MAGA,” we mean the temptation to copy some of MAGA’s worst political habits: tribal loyalty, contempt for persuasion, and the belief that emotional intensity is a substitute for broad public appeal.

Democrats face this temptation now. After years of Trump, many Democratic primary voters understandably want candidates who sound angry, uncompromising, and morally certain. That may feel satisfying. It may even win some blue districts and blue cities. But it is a poor strategy for winning red, pink, and purple places where Democrats need converts, independents, moderates, suburban voters, disaffected Republicans, and people who are tired of politics as permanent combat.

Georgia offered a useful test.

Geoff Duncan was not a conventional Democrat. That was the point. He was a former Republican lieutenant governor who broke with Trump over election integrity and paid a political price inside his own party. Democrats did not need to agree with Duncan on every issue to recognize the strategic value of his candidacy. If the defense of democracy is as important as Democrats say it is, then a pro-democracy former Republican should have been treated as an asset, not an intruder.

Instead, Democrats chose a more conventional path. Keisha Lance Bottoms won the Democratic nomination for governor without a runoff. She is a well-known Democrat and a serious political figure. But her nomination also raises the familiar question: are Democrats trying to build a broader governing coalition, or are they choosing candidates who make the base feel more comfortable? The problem is not that Bottoms is unserious. The problem is that Duncan offered a different kind of coalition opportunity.

This is not just a Georgia problem. It is a national problem for Democrats in red and purple territory. The party cannot say it wants to win everywhere while rejecting candidates who might appeal to people who do not already think like Democratic primary voters.

The point is not that every former Republican should be welcomed uncritically. Parties need standards. Candidates who switch parties for convenience or ambition should be examined carefully. But Duncan’s break with Trump was not a minor branding choice. It went to the central institutional question of the last several years: whether elected officials would defend election integrity when pressured by their own side.

If Democrats cannot make room for that, they should stop pretending that defending democracy is a coalition project.

The road to “Blue MAGA” is paved by the belief that the other side’s extremism justifies our side’s extremism. It is paved by the assumption that persuasion is weakness, that moderation is betrayal, and that candidates should be judged first by whether they make activists feel seen.

That road may produce candidates who sound good in a primary and lose races that were winnable. It may also produce candidates who win in heavily Democratic places but govern in ways that drive away the voters needed to build durable majorities nationally.

This does not mean Democrats should reject efforts to recruit new candidates. They should do the opposite. A stale bench, safe résumés, and candidates who speak only to existing Democratic primary voters will not solve the party’s problem. Candidate recruitment matters.

But “new blood” is not automatically the same thing as better blood. There is a difference between recruiting candidates who can broaden the party’s appeal and recruiting candidates who simply give activists a more satisfying fight. Democrats need candidates who can win voters they do not already have, not candidates who merely express the frustrations of voters they already do.

Groups trying to build a stronger Democratic bench may be doing important work. Some of that work points in the right direction. Democrats need candidates with compelling stories, state and district ties, practical experience, and the ability to speak beyond the party’s current coalition. But the test should not be novelty alone. The question is whether they expand the party’s reach or merely intensify its internal mood.

There are promising models.

Democrats should be looking for more candidates in the mold of Roy Cooper in North Carolina, Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania, Daniel Lurie in San Francisco, and, in Georgia, the opportunity Geoff Duncan represented. These are not identical figures, and they come from different political environments. But they share something important: they try to solve problems in a way that reaches beyond the most ideological voters in their own coalition.

Cooper showed that a Democrat could win statewide in a Republican-leaning state by projecting steadiness, moderation, and practical concern for schools, health care, and economic development. Shapiro has shown a similar ability in Pennsylvania, combining mainstream Democratic commitments with a governing style that does not seem designed primarily for activist approval. Lurie offers a different but related lesson from a deeply Democratic city: even in blue places, voters may be hungry for competence, public order, housing reform, economic recovery, and a government that works.

That is the kind of new blood Democrats should want. Not candidates who merely intensify the party’s internal mood, but candidates who expand its reach.

There are also warning signs that the search for new faces is veering off course.

Kara Eastman defeated a more moderate Democrat in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District and then lost the general election twice, including in 2020 when Joe Biden carried the district’s electoral vote. Randy Bryce became a national progressive celebrity as “Iron Stache,” raised money, won attention, and still failed to turn Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District blue. Paula Jean Swearengin offered a compelling Appalachian populist story in West Virginia, won the Democratic Senate nomination, and lost by more than 40 points.

These examples do not prove that every moderate would have won. They do show that biography, anger, online enthusiasm, and populist rhetoric are not substitutes for persuading the voters who actually decide red and purple races.

Graham Platner points to a current version of the same risk. His outsider profile, veteran biography, rural appeal, and anti-establishment message are exactly why some Democrats find him exciting. But that is also why his candidacy is a useful test. Populist energy, outsider branding, and intense primary enthusiasm may not survive contact with a general electorate.

A candidate like Zohran Mamdani may be viable in New York City. That does not mean the same style travels well to Maine, Georgia, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, or other places Democrats must compete if they want governing majorities. CIVPAC does not argue that left populists can never win anywhere. We argue that Democrats are making a mistake if they treat deep-blue or idiosyncratic-city success as a model for red and purple territory.

The recent mayoral results in New York City, Washington, D.C., and San Francisco are worth taking seriously because they say something about the Democratic brand when general-election constraint is weak. In places where the real contest is often the Democratic primary, voters and activists can reveal what kind of politics they prefer when they do not have to worry very much about Republican opposition.

New York and D.C. point in one direction. Zohran Mamdani’s victory in New York City and Janeese Lewis George’s victory in the D.C. mayoral primary suggest that left-populist politics has real strength in some of the party’s most visible urban centers. That matters nationally because New York and Washington are not just local governments. They are symbols. They help define what many voters elsewhere think Democrats are becoming.

San Francisco points in a different direction. Daniel Lurie’s victory did not make San Francisco conservative. It remains one of the most liberal cities in America. But it did suggest that even deeply liberal voters can become impatient with public disorder, visible dysfunction, housing paralysis, downtown weakness, and a city government that does not seem able to execute. In San Francisco, pragmatic competence became the change candidate. That is a brand image that could have national appeal.

That contrast is important. The problem is not that Democrats should never nominate left-populists in cities where left-populists can win. The problem is treating those victories as a national model. A style of politics that can win New York City or Washington, D.C. may still damage the Democratic brand in Maine, Georgia, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, or other places where Democrats need voters who do not already identify with the party’s most progressive urban wing.

This is another reason candidate recruitment matters. Deep-blue cities can become laboratories for policy innovation, but they can also become laboratories for national brand damage. When Democrats are unconstrained by serious general-election competition, they should ask not only what their local primary electorate wants, but what their choices tell the rest of the country about the party they are building.

Progressives sometimes make a mirror-image argument: that centrist Democrats in red or purple states damage the national Democratic brand by making the party look cautious, compromised, or insufficiently committed to progressive change. That argument should not be dismissed out of hand. Party brands are real, and candidates in one state can affect how voters see the party elsewhere. But a national party is not a boutique ideological label. It is a coalition built to govern a large, diverse country. A party that cannot tolerate candidates who fit West Virginia, Georgia, North Carolina, Maine, or Pennsylvania may preserve a cleaner brand, but it will have fewer seats, less power, and less ability to enact anything at all.

Joe Manchin offers a related lesson from the other direction. Manchin was not a model national Democrat, and many Democrats understandably found him infuriating given their policy preferences. He protected the filibuster, resisted major parts of President Biden’s domestic agenda, defended fossil-fuel interests important to West Virginia, and often used his leverage in ways that frustrated Democratic leaders.

CIVPAC does not share every Manchin position. But the strategic fact remains: he could win a Senate seat in West Virginia as a Democrat. A party that can hold a Senate seat in West Virginia through a moderate Democrat is stronger than a party that treats such figures as embarrassments and then watches the seat become unwinnable.

That lesson applies beyond Manchin. A party serious about building a durable governing coalition cannot demand that every candidate in every state sound like the median activist in a national primary. It has to tolerate members who fit their states, represent different electorates, and sometimes frustrate national party priorities.

That is what coalition politics means.

CIVPAC’s view is different from both partisan purity and performative moderation. Parties should nominate candidates who can govern effectively and appeal beyond their own faction. That sometimes means choosing a Democrat. Sometimes it means choosing a Republican. In rare cases, like Angus King of Maine, it might mean supporting an independent with a plausible path to success.

It is fine to lose after making the strongest possible case to the voters. It is something else to lose after rejecting the better candidate because the better candidate did not flatter the party’s internal mood.

When that happens, the answer to the party that loses the general election is simple: you had a better choice. You chose not to take it.

“Win Everywhere”: A Virtuous Cycle for American Politics

The Rivera report on the Democrats’ 2024 loss is an odd document.

It appears to contain some useful insights. It also appears unfinished, poorly rolled out, and only grudgingly released. The Democratic National Committee held the report for months before releasing it under internal pressure. DNC Chair Ken Martin then distanced himself from it, saying he was “not proud” of the product and that it did not meet his standards. The DNC also attached a disclaimer saying it could not verify many of the report’s claims because it had not received the underlying sourcing, interviews, or supporting data.

That is not how a serious political party should handle a serious post-election review.

Still, buried inside the Rivera report is an idea that both parties should take seriously: Democrats need to organize everywhere to win everywhere.

That phrase matters.

In fact, it may be the key to a healthier American politics.

What “Win Everywhere” Should Mean

I would take “win everywhere” more literally than political consultants usually do.

Obviously, no party will actually win every race. Politics is competitive. If one party improves, the other party will adapt. Some districts are deeply Republican. Others are deeply Democratic. Not every race is polled, and not every race can realistically be close in any given cycle.

But the aspiration should be clear:

A healthy political party should try to make every election genuinely contestable.

Conceptually, every serious party should want to nominate candidates who could poll within the margin of error before Election Day if voters were paying attention and both parties were competing seriously.

That is not because every candidate will win. They will not.

It is because the discipline of trying to win everywhere would force both parties to become better.

A Democrat running in rural Georgia should not sound like a faculty-lounge progressive from Brooklyn. A Republican running in suburban Maryland should not sound like he is auditioning for a Trump rally. Candidates should fit their communities while still reflecting their party’s broad principles.

That is what political parties are supposed to do.

They are supposed to persuade.

Why the Impossibility Is the Point

The reason “win everywhere” cannot fully succeed is also the reason it is so important.

If Democrats became more competitive in rural America, small towns, the South, and working-class communities, Republicans would have to adapt. They could not rely as easily on Trump loyalty, cultural resentment, and the assumption that Democrats are unacceptable by default.

If Republicans became more competitive in cities, suburbs, college towns, and diverse metropolitan areas, Democrats would have to adapt too. They could not rely as easily on progressive cultural shorthand, demographic assumptions, or opposition to Trump as a substitute for persuasion.

That competitive response is exactly what the country needs.

The goal is not permanent one-party dominance. The goal is healthier competition.

When both parties have to compete everywhere, both parties have to listen. They have to recruit better candidates. They have to moderate their language. They have to understand local concerns. They have to stop treating entire categories of voters as either deplorable or morally superior.

In short, both parties would have to become less obnoxious.

That may be the best argument for “win everywhere.”

Democrats’ Bad Habit: “Failure to Communicate”

The Rivera report appears more reasonable than the progressive response to it because it recognizes real Democratic weaknesses with men, rural voters, non-college voters, Latino voters, irregular voters, and voters in Middle America and the South. AP reported that the report criticized Democrats’ focus on identity politics and said Harris “wrote off rural America.” Reuters similarly reported that the report faulted Democrats for failing to engage men, rural voters, non-college-educated voters, and irregular voters.

That is useful.

But Democrats often make the same mistake after losing: they describe the defeat as a failure to communicate.

Sometimes that is true. Sometimes the message was unclear, the candidate was poorly defined, the campaign failed to respond, or the party did not show up.

But sometimes voters heard the message clearly enough and did not like it.

That distinction matters.

Immigration was not merely a communication problem. Inflation was not merely a communication problem. DEI rhetoric was not merely a communication problem. Cultural overreach was not merely a communication problem. The Trump campaign’s “they/them” ad was effective not simply because Democrats failed to answer it, but because many voters already suspected the party had become too willing to indulge the cultural left.

A party that wants to win everywhere cannot treat every voter disagreement as a misunderstanding.

It has to ask whether voters understood the party’s priorities and rejected them.

The Democratic Lesson

For Democrats, “win everywhere” means more than opening field offices in red counties.

It means becoming plausible to voters outside deep-blue cultural environments.

That does not mean becoming Republican. It does not mean abandoning civil rights, immigration reform, climate policy, abortion rights, or concern for vulnerable groups.

It means learning to speak about those issues in a way that does not sound contemptuous of ordinary people.

Democrats need to stop assuming that voters who dislike immigration disorder are xenophobes. They need to stop assuming that voters who dislike DEI rhetoric are racists. They need to stop assuming that voters who reject progressive language about gender are bigots. They need to stop confusing academic vocabulary with moral seriousness.

People of good will can address the real concerns of transgender people without appearing so open-minded that their brains fell out.

A party that wants to win everywhere has to be able to say that.

It also has to be honest about inflation. Biden-era transfers were politically understandable during COVID, but in retrospect the additional fiscal stimulus was poorly timed. When supply chains were still broken and production capacity was constrained, aggressive transfers increased demand faster than supply could respond. That made inflation more likely, and Democrats then paid the political price for seeming surprised by a result that should have been easier to anticipate.

That is not a messaging problem.

It is a judgment problem.

The Republican Lesson

Republicans need the same discipline.

A Republican Party that wants to win everywhere cannot define “Republican” as “loyal to Donald Trump.”

It cannot treat every dissenting conservative as a RINO. It cannot indulge election denial, cruelty, corruption, or authoritarian rhetoric and then wonder why it struggles in suburbs, cities, college towns, and diverse communities.

A serious Republican Party should have room for fiscal conservatives, libertarians, national-security conservatives, business conservatives, social conservatives, moderates, and populists. Those factions will disagree. That is what political parties are for.

But when loyalty to one man becomes the organizing principle, a party stops being a coalition and becomes a personal vehicle.

That is bad for Republicans. It is also bad for the country.

If Republicans wanted to win everywhere, they would need candidates who could speak to voters who care about fiscal discipline but reject chaos. They would need candidates who can talk about crime without sounding cruel, immigration without sounding bigoted, religion without sounding theocratic, and patriotism without sounding authoritarian.

That would make the Republican Party better.

The Virtuous Cycle

Here is the point that matters most.

If one party seriously tried to win everywhere, the other party would have to respond.

That response would create a virtuous cycle.

If Democrats competed seriously in rural and working-class districts, Republicans would have to stop taking those voters for granted. If Republicans competed seriously in urban and suburban districts, Democrats would have to stop taking those voters for granted.

More races would become real contests. More candidates would have to persuade. More voters would matter. Fewer politicians could survive by appealing only to activists, donors, cable-news audiences, or primary electorates.

That is how American politics could improve.

Not because one party becomes dominant.

Because both parties become less complacent.

A healthy democracy does not require one party to win everywhere. It requires both parties to believe they should try.

Why This Matters to CIVPAC

CIVPAC’s interest is not in helping Democrats win for the sake of Democrats, or Republicans win for the sake of Republicans.

Our interest is in making both parties better.

The country benefits when Democrats are forced to understand rural, religious, working-class, culturally moderate, and non-college voters. The country also benefits when Republicans are forced to understand urban, suburban, secular, immigrant, educated, and racially diverse voters.

Both parties need to compete for voters who are not already on their side.

That is how parties become less ideological, less arrogant, and less captured by their loudest activists.

It is also how voters get better choices.

Too many Americans are politically homeless because each party has learned to survive by making the other party unacceptable. Democrats rely on fear of Trump. Republicans rely on fear of the cultural left. Both strategies can work electorally. Neither strategy produces a healthy democracy.

“Win everywhere” offers a better discipline.

It says: do not write off voters. Do not caricature communities. Do not nominate candidates who can only speak to the converted. Do not assume that the other party’s failures are enough to excuse your own.

The Right Lesson From Rivera

The Rivera report may be unfinished. It may be poorly sourced. It may be incomplete. It reportedly sidesteps some of the hardest questions, including Biden’s decision to seek reelection, and the rushed elevation of Harris after Biden withdrew.

But the “win everywhere” idea is right.

The Democrats need it. Republicans need it too.

A party that wants to govern the whole country should try to understand the whole country. It should put forward candidates who can compete in places where the party usually loses. It should want every voter to believe that their vote matters and that both parties are capable of speaking to them.

That is not naïve. It is the competitive logic democracy is supposed to produce.

The country does not need one party to win everywhere.

It needs both parties to try.

That effort would force each party to listen more, preach less, and nominate candidates who can appeal beyond their own base.

That is the virtuous cycle American politics badly needs.

Of course, not everyone would welcome this. The activist wings of both parties benefit from safe-seat politics. Progressive activists have more power when Democrats only need to win deep-blue primaries. MAGA activists have more power when Republicans only need to win deep-red primaries. A genuine effort to win everywhere would weaken both groups because it would force candidates to persuade voters outside the ideological comfort zone. That is one reason the strategy is so attractive. It would return power from activists to voters.