I think there are at least two takeaways from these elections:
First, that Republican candidates who can keep Donald Trump at arms length will do better than he did in 2020.
Second, Biden won by running as a centrist. By virtue of handing over his legislative agenda to the progressive wing of his party he has undermined his, and therefore his party’s centrist appeal. Democratic candidates, in swing districts, would be well-advised to distance themselves as much as possible from the progressive wing. That probably means voting against the massive reconciliation package or at least leaning on the Democratic party leadership to slim it down dramatically. It also probably means taking a more conciliatory position on policing and educational content.